The Tech Overlords are now in AgTech: Oh Crap...
March 22nd, 2023 - My 31st Edition of Easy Observations in AgTech
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Opening Thoughts:
Oh the World AgriTech Innovation Summit…. Let me just start by saying I get it and all, but I can’t help but feel that the same theme at this/these conferences is just a different way to say the same thing. “A bunch of VCs want to get into Ag because of FOMO.” I mean it’s true.
They all want the small investment and big exit. It’s fine and all, but the ones that have (or sort of have) worked that way in many realms have turned into real dumpster fires after they get acquired. For investors they don’t care, but the thing is every time it happens it just causes industry wide problems especially in AgTech. I and many others have felt it and honestly we are sick and tired of it. These specific conferences just stagnate the wound that has always existed in AgTech.
Let’s talk about the common elephants briefly. Climate and Granular. As I’ve written before, while these groups sure got the big exit all they’ve done more or less is cost money and a lot more than they make. I’m not saying they haven’t helped some and created good tech, its just this model doesn’t work and help farmers and their service providers in the long run. There are smaller deals that are similar too in that the juice is not worth the squeeze. We have to stop this losing model in AgTech investment and conferences like that don’t help in many ways beyond pomp and circumstance.
Beyond that, I have to gripe again about what I swear everyone talks about at all AgTech conferences regardless of type over the last 10ish years. Collaboration. Great, cool, awesome… I don’t disagree really, but the way it’s handled is asinine. Two groups coming together to work together doesn’t really do shit for anyone most of the time. I’ve done it myself and am guilty trust me. All mean well and I blame no one either. It’s just not enough.
To truly collaborate in the AgTech world will take great sacrifice and that is one thing that most are never willing go after because they’ll lose something at the same time. This is why I believe the Tech Giants like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Telus are joining the game is because they sort of figured it out already. Our stubborn asses in Ag haven’t though we sort have tried. Closest thing I experienced around it was AgGateway.
It was weird and awesome all at the same time with AgGateway when many in the AgTech world came together to try and sort it all out and come up with a standard way to come together. We all know it’s needed to help everyone out and it was going well, but then something happened…money and time ran out. Parts only got semi finished like the ADAPT Standard (basically translating all data formats) because a few groups like John Deere basically paid to get it finished. Few have actually integrated it as it costs a lot to do. Talk to AgIntegrated (now Telus Ag) my older employer and they will tell you.
There was so much more that was wanted and needed to be done. The problem as I stated was money and time, though it really was time. My old boss at ProAg who was big into it all basically had to work full time with AgGateway to help and so did many others. Most that were part of it were small groups with limited resources and finally just had to bail once the needed fees of AgGateway came into play to actually support it all. Many still want it, but time and money is the problem.
This is why the tech giants have reared their heads into AgTech and Agriculture as a whole. While I will say there is a huge danger to it, it doesn’t have to be dangerous either and I wanted…scratch that, needed to write about it to somehow help others breakdown why to some extent.
If you’re still reading I’ll just say I’m going to go two ways, grim and graceful. Sometimes one has to speculate the worst in order to find the right path to something better. While what I will say isn’t perfect and is likely strife with ignorance and bias, I will do my best to paint the picture in a way that opens some conversations and ideas into where you go next.
Painting a Grim Picture:
I love and hate to do this honestly as it seems I’m getting a reputation of being critically and cynically negative about AgTech. I’m am and I’m not. I’m a skeptic realist as my lovely Grandmother Hulda (god rest her soul) always said to me. One has to at times in order to move forward graciously in some way.
Here is what could happen with Giant Tech in AgTech:
The really really short answer is control. I mean let’s be honest, almost everyone uses Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, or Google Cloud to run their businesses from a server level these days. Many use all of them or part of each. Sure, there are others but these groups handle the most by far and they do much much more as all know.
Why the danger isn’t because they inherently want to do it, it’s that they know they probably can because they have the infrastructure, knowledge, and money to do it naturally without anyone really caring. If you really think about all the other AgTech giants or smaller startups they likely use one of those 3 services to a large extent already. It’s just what it is really.
Where the problem lies is within where the narrative can quickly go due to the forces of change that many are wanting already around ESG, Sustainability, and Carbon wants, needs, and goals. Instead of going through each little process of why, I’m going to paint the picture of a potential future and you can take what you want from it good or bad or heck both.
The Potential Future: As a farmer
Call me Farmer A (they’ll be others). Recently, the latest Farm Bill by the USDA was passed and with it a new rules that help reduce my crop insurance payment up to say 20% (a decent amount) if I comply with certain “environmental” changes to my farm. To comply with the top end of the reduction in payment I need to showcase and prove what I’m doing digitally in order to meet these changes and goals. I agree as my neighbors Farmer B, C, D, and F will also likely do this and to compete in the marketplace I basically have to.
Myself Farmer A, decided to go all in with 20% reduction. Farmer B at 15%, Farmer C at 10%, Farmer D at 5%, and stubborn Farmer F doesn’t want to participate as they don’t have to. Everyone besides Farmer F has to report extra data about their operation and based on their farming practices they may not even qualify for the top 20% because they maybe don’t have the right equipment, tech, type of land, or something different that limits how much they can change. All in all, there are options and not all farms can benefit fully which is no different from the past really.
As the USDA doesn’t have the tech, people, or systems to help farmers comply with all of this they contract the management of this data out to industry which is normal. Since larger Tech groups and Ag groups have the money and lobbying power they naturally grab and get the power to “help” the USDA. Yes there are smaller groups involved as is usually required, but they are semi puppets to the larger master.
This provides the large tech groups with not only a large financial and long term contract to keep building, maintaining, and enhancing their processes in AgTech it also is a two for one deal as is tradition with Government contracts usually. The general public also gains and the typically large corporate gets the most advantage.
As the big techs are now drunk with government money they will naturally go towards the behemoths of Agriculture in Agrifood. These groups to an extent now control what needs to be grown to produce the products people want through contracts (Tyson controls chickens, Dole controls certain Fruits and Veg, etc…) and will further want more data to support those contract in the future. The next big move beyond specialty Ag is commodities in general grains (corn, soys, wheat and livestock like beef.)
As these governmental programs become prevalent it just makes it easier for large corps and Ag Retail to add on their own programs with the same data as you are already sharing it and you can then double dip into Govt and Private saving/money/programs/grants/etc… I, Farmer A and the others will be paid on all fronts to share our data and since we are already doing it it doesn’t feel as bad cause now we are making real money in doing so by sharing once and getting more money.
Now that many growers like myself in Farmer A, B, C, and D are sort of forcing ourselves to share our data towards the government and also i.e tech giants via many methods to comply in ESG related activities directly or indirectly the groups that handle our data can now entice Agrifood to use their solutions to better manage their needs by the farmers.
What Agrifood figures out easily is that they can demand what they want via data as a proven way to control what they wants and how a farmer grows food for them while giving them a premium via their contracts as this is what is marketed as “wanted” by consumers. Groups like Tyson and Dole do it now. Now ADM, Cargil, Louis-Dreyfus, Gavalon, Bunge, and others now say they want it for commodities/beef and local grain co-ops and livestock plants which sell to them also must enforce such things in order for them to make it and compete.
All in all, in order for me Farmer A to farm most things I must share most of my digital data to not only the government to compete with B, C, and D farmers, but in turn to also compete and continue my traditional farm must share this info just to have the ability to sell my grain and/or cattle to anyone for a decent price or the premium one that becomes needed to actually make it as all inputs, land, and expenses get increasingly higher. Banks will follow regarding risk and so will Machinery groups and Input manufacturers.
The other option is Farmer F who says screw them all! Many of these types would exist at first, but they would slowly get taken out as happened with Poultry, Pork, and Dairy sectors in Ag as the money and want for their “archaic” product wouldn’t be wanted or supported. Now the main consumer get’s the data about the end product they want to the full extent and will no longer care for the local market as it won’t even exist.
All of this because data drove the narrative and the big techs lobbied enough to convince the government to take this slow but intense path. Farmers and Ranchers become Serfs or feudal laborers. Sounds fun…Not
The Likely Truth:
Okay that was really long and not fully explained, but I needed to point it out to a point. The problem is the only groups that are really capable of doing this are the large tech groups as they already have so much control of data in all realms in the first place, even in large corporate Ag. Even the social media groups will tag on with their information to aide into it all.
As for the actual truth to all of this, while the above is possible don’t be fooled, it would be really hard to do as there are many many farmer groups that would fight tooth and nail to make sure this wouldn’t happen. There are plenty of politicians on both sides that wouldn’t want that as it would destroy their base and they couldn’t keep their power. Even the general public puts farmers in such a high regard that the visuals of it all being controlled into serfdom potentially could actually and likely destroy that anyway.
Even as we speak many are getting tired of the Big Tech montra of data control and privacy. The next generations definitely are aware of it much further than current ones. Being a really old Millennial myself (though I’m in a weird bunch some call the Oregon Trail Generation born 80-85’) we have been caught in the middle of it all. Gen Z and further might figure it all out and call the bluff out eventually.
What the Big Techs really are likely thinking is that they have the infrastructure, money, and tech to really help and could make some money around it or at the very least help increase their stock price. I hope that is the extent of it really.
What I’m worried about:
To be honest, I’m sort of worried what I just wrote might give some a playbook to actually do it. Mainly though I’m worried that the start of Big Tech in Ag will just gradually navigate towards what I fear because sometimes that’s just how things work. Heck, look at the war in Ukraine right now. After the fall of the Soviet Union most where like, “Finally, don’t have to worry about them really anymore!” Same thought that about Germany in the early 20th century.
More or less, I’m worried that the past just seems to repeat itself. While Serfdom hasn’t been a thing in the Western World of Ag for a long time in a huge way, it actually is sort of going that way if you really dive deep in other areas of the world or hasn’t changed at all. Dutch Farmers right now are sort of in the middle of it by the their Govt saying, “Farm our way or you can’t farm!” India isn’t perfect and either is Africa or China. The world of farming isn’t perfect to say the least.
We are not as separated from that potential truth as many think in the Western high tech Ag world and we can’t be naive to it in any realm. Though can it really be avoided?
It could be better:
There are a few ways that all can come together and use digital data for all the purposes that everyone wants, but it would take a lot of sacrifice, money, and time to do so. As I mentioned earlier too, doing that in Ag with digital data hasn’t and isn’t really happening either.
Heck, while everyone wants collaboration and standards so we can all share data easily, doesn’t that also make it easier for control of that data by a few to happen? Maybe that is what Big Tech wants so as to get what they really want…control.
I almost hate to say this and while I don’t see it happening, I really think the USDA and its Agencies could create some simple rules to mitigate the fears I and others have. It sucks though because that is hard to do and hard for them to maintain the rules as well. For instance, while crop insurance is great in many ways it also has issues in compliance of fraud. That’s another topic in itself, but it is a thing for sure.
Also, the AgTech industry as a whole itself could be better in setting a tone of compliance in how ones share and use data derived from farmers. Yes, there is a lot of data that can be had without any farmer involvement like satellite imagery and weather data, but maybe some controls how one ingests farmer data could be adhered to in some way. Then again that is regulation and farmers hate it yet can’t exist without it. That is another battle naturally.
Basically, I think there is enough people on all sides to have a real and better conversation about data in all realms in Ag. It hasn’t been done enough and maybe a conference where actual farmers (a lot, not just a few selected ones) are involved around AgTech could be a nice little stepping stone instead of what we typically see….yeah…cough…cough…World Agritech Innovation Summit…cough.
Final Thoughts:
I’m not even sure what my final thoughts are beyond 3 things…and that what I’m talking about barely scratches the surface. AI will probably just control it all and as you can see Big Tech is there…shit. Anyway…
I get why Big Tech is in Ag and there is nothing I can do about it.
Whatever happens there isn’t much I can do to prevent it beyond creating poignant weird AgTech based memes that maybe stick in some minds that actually can do something.
Big Tech press releases and marketing around AgTech are going to piss me the hell off all the time and I know I’m not alone.
Overall, I think I said what I wanted to say in that Agriculture isn’t really far off from not being a Culture anymore and becoming more about Control or Ag Serfdom. Please, tell me I’m wrong in all the ways you can either in the comments below or on the social sites I share it on.
I really do not want to be negative, but you have to be honest and see that these things are not that far off from reality. Bad things in history repeat themselves for many reasons and Agriculture on many fronts is ripe for the picking, figuratively and literally. I don’t want what I love in Ag to die and what I love about it is the freedom many have still to set how they farm.
It's unfortunately not free everywhere and I’d rather see those groups get out of it than us that have to force ourselves into it out of greed. AgTech while great could also lead us there if we are not careful. Be careful, be mindful, and be thoughtful on how to make sure it doesn’t happen and if you see it, stand up to it. Don’t be a fool…
Thanks for reading Easy Observations! Please Share, Subscribe, and Comment if you would be so kind. I’d also be happy to get together and meet if you’d like to talk more in-depth about AgTech or Earth Observation in Ag. Feel free to contact me at my website. All the best!