March 3rd - 3rd Edition of my Imagery in Ag weekly series
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(As a note to my readers, this was suppose to go out yesterday but I did not change the correct drop down so here we are)
Opening thoughts for the week
A side message to start:
What a week huh? So my Elephant-in-the-Room edition last week doesn’t quite compare to the real world event and Elephant-in-the-Room situation going on right now in Ukraine. In saying this, I wanted to highlight a group I actually talked to exactly one week ago with the Ukrainian Agricultural and Earth Observation group EOS (Earth Observation Systems) that is directly based in Kyiv with over 100 employees. I talked to one of their reps right before the invasion and while very optimistic at the time and having explained that they have a contingency plan work wise, I can only imagine many of those plans and thoughts have changed.
Going forward, it’s very possible and likely EOS and many other businesses based in Ukraine will need added support to stay afloat and continue their businesses after this invasion and escalation. Apparently, I found EOS is starting to shift their focus from Ag to Defense now to help disseminate satellite imagery for the country to help show movement of Russian forces. SAR and High Res data specifically. Cool stuff and all the best to them!
I hope all reading this will do their part in supporting Ukrainian groups like EOS and beyond in the EO space, but also the very large and important Agriculture Industry that is based in Ukraine which affects many different Ag groups throughout the world. They are the bread basket of Europe and literally have some of the best soils in the world. Markets in Ag are literally shifting to great levels because of this.
Hopefully things will de-escalate and return to peace, but in the meantime I hope people realize the impacts this war and invasion is imposing on all types of people, groups, and businesses that touch this world. Cheers to the Ukrainian people’s safety and independence, the world is behind you. Slava Ukraini!
Back to the Newsletter:
As you can see my little nugget highlight is called “A Daily Competition.” Pun intended of course because while I did talk about the most known “daily” EO group with Planet last week, you might have also noticed that I mentioned they are not the only ones coming into play and will have stiff competition in the near future. This is what I plan to dig into more this week and beyond as a complementary to last.
Who’s in the running and their constellation details:
Out of the above list, these groups below will likely have the largest impact in Agriculture from what I’ve seen so far beyond Planet, as I highlighted last week. Now there are other players like the veterans in MAXAR and AIRBUS too, but I’m not counting them here as they are pretty established. I also skipped on other high res satellite providers like Blacksky and some of the SAR (synthetic aperture radar) groups like ICEYE, Capella, and Umbra as they aren’t dealing with Ag much quite yet. I’ll for sure cover SAR at a later date.
Here are my top EO contenders going forward in Ag:
Note: Some of these numbers might not be perfect as it’s common to change some specs beforehand
EarthDaily Analytics - Based in Canada, 9 sats, first launch in 2023, 5 meter Daily, 23 bands, sensors on par with Sentinel 2 A/B and Landsat
Satellogic - Based in Argentina, 22 launched of 90 planned, 1 meter 4 band, 25m 29 band hyperspectral
Axel Space - Based in Japan, 5 out of 9 launched (4 more in Q4 22’), 2.5m
EOS AgriSat - Based in US and Ukraine, 12 sats planned (first one planned launch in Oct 22’), 1.8m pan sharpened, 2.5m multi-spectral 11 band total
Wyvern Space - Based in Canada, 15 planned for 2023 launch, 5m 8 band and 32 band hyperspectral
Pixxel - Based in India, 24-30 planned, hyperspectral
Hydrosat - Based in the US, 16 sats planned, High resolution Thermal based
GHGsat - Based in Canada, 3 out of 6 launched, Methane and CO2 monitoring.
Satrevolution - Based in Poland, 3 test satellites launched our of 60+ planned, 3-5m 4 band
ConsteLLR - Based in Germany, 30 sats planned, Thermal 50m
If I’m missing a clear contender, I apologize but please let me know who you are. I’m sure I’ve missed a few.
How to get through all of it?
Great question, even if every group in Ag wanted all this data and could even pay for it they’ll all run into the same issue, getting value out of the data. It’s not to say you can’t get value, but can you get it in the real world consistent applications year after year with scalable and profitable results? It’s not as easy as some think.
One of the biggest issues with EO groups in regard to Ag is the value prop is very misunderstood by them. There are many assumptions made. For instance...
You can detect disease and pests daily with our data
You can see crop damage easily with our data
You’ll be able to calculate more accurate yield estimates
You can detect water movement, loss, amounts, and availability more easily
With our data you get up to date change detection to fix your issues compared to free sources
All of these sound great and they are all possible to an extent, especially in an R&D testing phase or small scale plot. What is usually never tested though is the business model and the effects of the data itself on the buyer of data and its clients, i.e. the grower. If you match this with the vague marketing efforts most place on imagery data in Ag you start to get a lot of issues. These issues lead to false results and common mistrust among those in Ag. Ag has been burned a lot with EO data to say the least.
What can EO companies do different?:
Open up your data and processes to Ag better (archived data comes to mind for you private groups). Whether you already have birds up in space, in testing, or the planning stage, there is a major need to work closer with those in Ag that would use it. The problem though traditionally has been old school licensing agreements, weird legal challenges, and the want for paid pilots or buying data upfront. I get it trust me, but Ag works differently. Ag is traditionally a slow moving industry and it needs time to assess data and see its reaction in the real world. I mean for most, they only get one chance to grow and monitor a crop each year. Compared to all the other EO use cases it’s different, so you need to act differently.
All in all, this is also a rabbit whole as each company and region on Earth that works with Agriculture manages their business differently and each country has different rules Ag abide too. It can be very hard to work consistently with Ag in regard to how you work with them with any data. So overall, you are battling an uphill climb. Of course, that is also why you might be reading this and it’s why I’m writing it. I can’t get through it all this edition or the next, but I’ll help guide everyone the best I can based on the time I’ve experienced trying to solve the problem.
What can Ag Businesses do different?:
Be patient and more realistic. It is very easy as an Ag Business to see the opportunities regarding EO data from satellites, aerial, and drones. They give such an interesting and unique perspective to how crops grow. The data can show things we literally cannot see and sometimes to an extent that is very scalable which can save time regarding many different agronomic and logistic needs.
The problem most in Ag showcase towards EO groups is the need for perfection and also goals that just are not achievable. Many in Ag usually think of Satellites and Drones as these magical things we see zoom into any part of the world instantly from a movie. This is what many in Ag actually perceive imagery data to be and what it can do for them. I could go on and on about the requests I’ve received in Ag if I could find their stolen tractor or see where the deer they couldn’t find landed. I’m very serious in saying that. It isn’t everyone or most though, but it’s still a thing.
What Ag needs to do is have more honest conversations with EO in the basics of how their businesses run. Not how they want them to be in 5-10 years. It seems everyone in Ag that has interest in imagery wants to solve problems that most growers can’t quite work with yet or the Ag business they work with can’t deal with yet. They are putting the cart ahead of the horse more often than not.
For instance, a large problem in Ag is just getting black and white answers. Was a field planted, was it tilled, was it harvested, when was it harvested, etc... ? Just these simple things can help solve many issues. The problem? While it is needed, who pays for it? Who builds these analytics and do they really have an ROI? Also, black and white answers are not as simple to create as one would think (future newsletter). The answer is actually hard to know or answer and hence why many don’t actually go forward and get the simple things they need.
The harsh reality is for Ag is that you can’t always look at EO imagery data as something you need a direct ROI from. That is what really needs to change. It needs almost to become just a newer type of expense that needs to be integrated into their businesses in some form or fashion. Much like cell phones, internet, social media, etc... It just becomes part of the norm and if you don’t deal with it and get the basics you’ll get pushed out from your competition. Now in saying this, EO needs to work with AG to make this a reality as well and stop acting like the “old school” imagery groups of the past.
Who wins and how:
The people who win in any scenario regarding Ag and EO are the people that have no idea it’s even being used to make their lives more efficient. It just becomes part of the product or service they purchased. No grower, I repeat, No grower will ever be the main source of buying imagery data in Ag directly. I don’t care what the medium is, they are a service based industry. Especially when it comes to data like imagery. It’s not an 80/20 rule, its like a 99/1 rule at best.
My advice for EO and Ag groups? Work together and open up your processes and data to each other in more of a R&D focused way to start. Also, don’t charge each other for it right away unless it’s a good and tested product or somehow shows direct value fast. There is still hope for both groups.
Quick takes
Hype gone wild
“Daily” cloudless imagery: I’m generally not a giant fan of these products. There have been many types that have came out in the last year or so. Heck, here is one that just came out the other day from Aspia Space and Origin Digital.
Basically what they do is bring together Sentinel 1 SAR data (can see through clouds) and Sentinel 2 optical data (can see more, but not if clouds/shadows exist) with some AI/ML calamity and say they can remove the clouds from the past and predict the patterns on days where no data exists. Futuristic right?
My problem with it is the analytical value that sits in the raw data needed for many different Ag solutions either doesn’t exist, or is skewed. Visually sure its probably good-ish, but analytically I just don’t see the value in faking daily imagery this way beyond some generic visual needs.
I think a lot of it actually is used to give a false sense that something new is happening on your field and you can notify the crap out of the user (grower). Most Ag users don’t know how to deal with clouds and shadows too so it’s almost a front to not confuse them. Maybe I’m missing something here too and there is a big want and need agronomically by others, but happy to hear others thoughts on this as well.
I like it
Drones/UAVs finding their place: If you’ve known me from the past I’ve been very verbal about my thoughts on how drones fit into Agriculture. I maybe talk more around the satellite scene, but rest assured I do think drones and aerial data play a role in Ag. They are necessary actually, but can’t be the one and be all answer. That was done for many years starting around 2014 due to new money coming into Ag and drones becoming cheap and easy to sell. It was a crazy time and took so much breath out of the reality of how imagery data can be used in Ag.
Finally, I think we are to a spot where the bad drone groups have gone away and the ones that are around have done it correctly and slowed their weird marketing hype roles while having some success. I get why they had to do that for growth and investment, but it set back the overall needs by Ag for a few years. I do want to cover the drone and aerial groups more in the future and will, but likely will wait till crops are actually growing as that is their strong suit. Timing and resolution has many advantages and well, drones are fun.
Did you know?
Gossip - I’m not sure if you call this gossip per say, but as I started off in the newsletter talking about Ukraine and the invasion by Russia is that groups like EOS are switching to Military mode. Max Polyakov is the founder of EOS and a few other subsidiaries is Space Tech like Firefly Aerospace and Dragonfly Aerospace (He’s been in many other things as well). He actually had to sell his share in Firefly Aerospace due to US pressure and his companies geographical vicinity to Russia as of recent. He did this to make sure to show the US that he isn’t a bad foreign actor and is on the US side business wise. I would say he’s done this and I saw on Tuesday that the Ukrainian Government is actually looking at Max and EOS directly as one of the main groups working with all EO data in a Defense and Military action. This is very interesting to say the least, but I’m sure the people at EOS are up to the task not only technically, but emotionally. It’ll be very interesting where EOS goes after this invasion is over considering the necessary move to help defend its country. Ag will be apart of their future for sure, but this all lends itself to them becoming a large player in the EO Defense Geospatial industry if you ask me. Time will tell.
Old stories - Back in 2006 or so, John Deere spent close to or more than 100 million dollars in pushing and trying to sell Aerial (planes) Imagery directly to farmers and Ag businesses (numbers are rumors, but I know they are close). OptiGro was the name of this solution and they made a giant mess of the Imagery business in Ag at those times. From what I remember hearing back then is that they only sold a few hundred thousand dollars worth of data and most of everything they planned to shoot for growers never was shot. It was a massive failure and one I would definitely like to forget as it affected my families company Satshot a great deal. In any realm, they learned their lesson I guess, but sometimes history likes to repeat itself and it almost did. That is for another time though...
Fun facts - This might seem trivial to most these days as free imagery data is rampant with the likes of Sentinel with the ESA Copernicus Constellation and the well known USGS Landsat program, but did you know Landsat use to cost like $400-500 per scene tile for commercial businesses?
It is very true and one that made it very hard to push EO data to the likes of Ag in the late 90s/early 2000s. Even worse, is some (University of North Dakota) education entities would get the data for free and through some graduate program would create free tools while getting free Landsat data and give it away to farmers for nothing. A state funded program competing directly against commercial businesses. That is long gone now, but that was a very very frustrating time to say the least.
The Future
I’ll keep this simple for this week as I dove into plenty earlier. As you saw, my focus was showcasing the many future daily imagery providers that plan to pursue Agriculture in some fashion. While the ones I showcased are not the only ones that will be involved, I do want to give all these groups the proper assessment in how they plan to work with Ag.
My plan is to highlight one of these groups each week going forward until I can’t find any anymore. I’m not sure how I’ll go about this exactly, but if you want a deeper dive into every type of group that wants to get into EO in AG this is the place to be. So if you haven’t already, hit this button below please or share it to others you know that would like to be in the know.
Other News
Sentinel Hub Webinar - Automate Agriculture Field Delineation Tool
Closing thoughts for the week
The future is bright in a weird way for EO: While it is odd to say this and it’s with a heavy heart, but the war going on in Ukraine has lead to an amazing effect...everyday people becoming interested in EO data. Unfortunately, war always brings good it seams in the realm of technology advancements or the knowledge of them. Mostly bad, but good can come from it too. It’s easier to Google this effect so I won’t go into exactly how, but in the theme of this newsletter EO has had a sort of renaissance in the last week due to the emergence of so many new companies putting up satellites as of late and showing the movement of physical things on the ground to news organizations and on social media. A similar thing happened with the blockage of the Suez Canal last year.
Why is this important? The main thing I’d say is what has happened in EO in the last few years with easier and cheaper access to data has allowed more than just the well funded businesses and governments to access how things in this world are changing. Whether Geopolitical, Climate-based, or where and how much of things grow i.e, Agriculture and mainly Food, it can show the power of easier access to data to empower more than the elite or scientists to see what is actually going on. This is huge for so many reasons!
Earth Observation as a whole is a key data source to where we plan to lead ourselves into the future in so many ways. While war is always a terrible way to showcase new technology to the masses, it sometimes can have a silver lining. Seeing what is going on over in Eastern Europe shows me this is happening to some extent. In the end, I try to find the positives in negative situations if even possible. Not sure why, but it is the way I’ve evolved.
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